Former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead of President Joe Biden in a nationwide poll released Wednesday by Florida Atlantic University.
The survey reported Trump with 41% to Biden’s 37%.
There was a significant gender gap. Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points among women and 7 points among men.
The former president was ahead of Biden by 5 or 6 percentage points among most age groups. They were tied among voters aged 50-64.
Asked if they’d vote for Biden or Trump, a significant share of voters said they’d vote for another candidate (13%) or were undecided (9%).
Political insiders have been debating the effects additional candidates could have on the outcome. If an independent or third-party candidate attracts mostly people who would otherwise vote for Biden, that would aid Trump. If other candidates siphon more votes from Trump, that would help Biden.
A large share of voters — one third — don’t accept the notion that the election in November will actually come down to a choice between the current Democratic president and the former Republican president.
Just 54% of those surveyed said the 2024 presidential election would be between Biden and Trump.
Another 33% said one or both of the two wouldn’t be a candidate in November.
And 13% said they didn’t know if it would involve Biden, Trump or different candidates.
Biden approval — 57% said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president and 38% said they somewhat or strongly approve.
Trump favorability — 52% have a strongly or somewhat unfavorable opinion of Trump and 42% said they have a strongly or somewhat favorable view.
Not locked in — A majority (53%) said they were very likely to cast a vote for the candidate they said they’d support in November. Another 26% said they were somewhat likely to vote for that candidate, with 7% somewhat unlikely and 5% very unlikely to vote for the candidate they said they’d support.
College vs. non-college — Among white non-college educated voters, Trump leads Biden 52% to 26%. Among white college-educated voters, Trump has a much smaller lead, 44% to 40%.
“Former President Trump is maintaining a commanding lead with white non-college-educated voters. This group has been steadfast and largely unmoved in their support of the former president,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist said in a written statement.
Most recent major national polls have Trump slightly ahead of Biden — and fewer voters undecided or considering unnamed alternatives. The RealClearPolling average Tuesday afternoon showed a 47% to 45% split.
The survey was done by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.
The FAU survey of 1,180 adults was conducted on Friday and Saturday by Mainstreet Research. An important caveat: The survey was conducted via text message and an online panel. That made it impossible to assign a margin of error, the survey report said, adding it was “intended to represent the voting population” of the U.S.
Anthony Man can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.